Bitcoin (BTC) jumped back above $110,000 on Monday, erasing part of last week’s slide even as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted their second-largest weekly net outflows on record ($1.2 billion).
The swift rebound, from lows near $103,700, has traders asking whether the market just completed a “controlled deleveraging” and is now basing for the next advance. Ether reclaimed $4,000 alongside broader crypto green shoots, aided by cooling trade-war headlines and growing odds of additional Fed rate cuts.
Short term, BTC is attempting to hold the $107,000–$110,000 support band. A clean break and hold above $112,000–$115,500 would strengthen the bullish case and set sights on $120,000–$123,000.
Macro tailwinds are supportive, with markets now pricing in further Fed easing, a trend that has historically redirected capital from cash and money-market funds toward risk assets.
On-chain and cross-asset signals add weight. CryptoQuant’s Joao Wedson flagged rare bottom readings in the BTC-to-gold ratio oscillator, levels that previously preceded strong recoveries.
Separately, JP Morgan’s framework values BTC materially higher versus gold, mapping to a potential $165,000 by 2025 if the relationship normalizes.
Short-term holder MVRV Bollinger signals are also in “oversold” territory, seen earlier at $49,000 and $74,000 before subsequent rallies, supporting the notion that recent weakness was an accumulation phase, not a top.
Funding and open interest have cooled, reducing the risk of another forced-liquidation cascade. Regardless, skeptics point to rising-wedge overhangs and headline risk (trade tensions, data shocks), while gold’s record run fuels the “digital-gold vs. gold” debate.
The bounce above $110,000, despite heavy ETF redemptions, suggests strong dip-buying and improving liquidity. If macro conditions cooperate and BTC can reclaim the mid-$110,000s with volume, the market may be transitioning from “reset” to re-accumulation, laying groundwork for a fresh bull leg into late 2025.
Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
