Quantum computers can already break Bitcoin's cryptography, and coins held in existing addresses can be drained today.

The underlying remark is real: IBM's chief executive said publicly that quantum computing should begin generating meaningful revenue before the end of the decade as sector investment accelerates. That is a statement about commercial traction, not cryptanalysis. Breaking Bitcoin's secp256k1 signatures with Shor's algorithm would require a fault-tolerant machine with error-corrected logical qubits far beyond anything demonstrated publicly, and no credible report describes a private key being recovered from a public key by quantum means. Separate expert coverage treats crypto as an early warning system for quantum risk precisely because exposure is concentrated and reused public keys are visible on-chain — a framing that assumes the threat is prospective, not present. The honest position is that the risk is real on a multi-year horizon, that post-quantum migration planning deserves attention now, and that any post telling readers to move funds today because coins can be drained today is misrepresenting the state of the art.

IBM's chief executive expects commercially meaningful quantum computing before the decade ends. Security researchers treat crypto assets as an early indicator of quantum exposure because public keys and address reuse are observable on-chain.

When cryptographically relevant quantum computers will exist, how quickly post-quantum signature schemes could be adopted across Bitcoin and Ethereum, and how much value sits in addresses with exposed public keys at that point are all open questions.