The week ending November 7 marked one of the heaviest print runs since late summer. Day-by-day ETF data shows the de-risking ran through most sessions before a brief midweek pause.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs were net minus $1.21 billion across the five sessions, nearly a one-for-one match with the global outflow figure tracked by CoinShares for listed digital-asset products.
The concentration in US vehicles suggests an ETF-led reset rather than a broad exit across all venues. By day, flows tallied as follows:
That sequence frames a pickup in selling pressure into last week’s tape and underlines how the US channel has been setting the weekly direction. The same regional dynamic also explained record inflows during early October when cash demand was concentrated in US funds.
When outflow weeks are ETF-heavy and basis is cool, the next move tends to be called by whether the ETF tape stabilizes first. If daily ETF prints flip back to modest positives in the $150–$300 million range, Bitcoin’s price discovery usually re-anchors as the marginal flow turns, then basis and open interest follow.
The near-term map, therefore, hinges on three observable channels.
The sequencing tends to follow a familiar cadence. Monday brings the CoinShares snapshot of the prior week, while daily ETF flow prints update the marginal cash signal by the close of each session. Additionally, the term structure of derivatives and open interest adjust as risk is added or removed.
According to CoinShares’ methodology notes, the flows series captures listed ETP and ETF vehicles, not off-exchange wallet rotation. Therefore, last week’s minus $1.2 billion should be understood as ETF-dominated activity rather than capitulation by spot holders.
Basis and funding are state variables; levels around 4–6% annualized imply reduced leverage, which historically precedes more durable advances when cash demand returns.
Cross-market context remains aligned with the flow read. The US has driven the fastest turns both up and down since October, consistent with the outsized footprint of spot Bitcoin ETFs in setting weekly direction.
None of the indicators mentioned, in isolation, establishes a new trend. Taken together, they frame a risk reset that leaves scope for rebuild if and when ETF inflows resume.
Additionally, monitor a gradual increase in open interest on the CME, alongside offshore venues. In the negative case, exercise caution if CoinShares records another week with a deficit of $1 billion, with the basis pinned near flat and open interest fading.
In the fast-rebound case, a single, very large positive ETF day would likely appear first, with the term structure steepening and open interest following.
The immediate takeaway from the latest print is that the outflow week was driven by ETFs, not a market-wide unwind. That keeps the focus squarely on the US ETF tape to call the turn, with basis and open interest as confirmation.
Solana and XRP products were relative pockets of resilience even as Bitcoin and Ether products led redemptions. The asset-level split will be clarified in the next Monday update.
