A new research report from Fidelity Digital Assets underscores a deepening structural shift in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, revealing that the portion of BTC classified as “ancient”—coins that have not moved in 10 years or more—is now growing faster than new issuance, a first in the asset’s 16-year history. If current trends hold, Fidelity projects that by 2035, up to 30% of all Bitcoin could fall into this ultra-long-term dormant category.
What Fidelity highlights is not merely the numerical expansion of ancient supply, but its growing influence on Bitcoin’s market architecture. “The strong conviction of these ultra long-term holders is having an increasing influence on the wider Bitcoin ecosystem,” Wainwright writes. He adds that the increasing concentration of supply in immobile addresses reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity, particularly when paired with its fixed issuance schedule.
Yet the report does not frame ancient supply as a static concept immune to market stress. While daily decreases in ancient supply are rare—occurring on just 3% of all days since 2019—that figure jumped to 10% in the months following the 2024 US election. The report contextualizes this shift with a detailed chart, “Bitcoin Price Marked by Decreases in Ancient Supply,” which maps price reactions to short-term sell-offs or reallocation events among long-term holders.
Looking forward, Fidelity offers a framework for projecting ancient supply as a growing share of total issuance. Based on the current accumulation trajectory, ancient supply is expected to reach 20% of total Bitcoin by 2028, 25% by 2034, and potentially 30% by 2035. These figures incorporate hypothetical contributions from public companies currently holding at least 1,000 BTC. As of June 8, 2025, Fidelity identifies 27 such firms, collectively controlling over 800,000 BTC.
While acknowledging that corporate wallets are not inherently long-term by nature, the report argues that public entities with significant holdings could contribute meaningfully to future ancient supply metrics—especially if they continue to accumulate and maintain cold storage policies that prevent frequent movement.
Wainwright concludes that the rise of ancient supply represents more than a numerical trend—it could reshape how investors understand Bitcoin’s scarcity. “Given Bitcoin’s preprogrammed, disinflationary supply issuance schedule—and data suggesting that long-term holders are becoming increasingly resolute, alongside factors such as lost coins—the asset’s scarcity has the potential to grow over time,” he writes. In an ecosystem where circulating liquidity and active supply increasingly matter for price discovery, the rising gravitational pull of ancient coins may emerge as one of the defining features of Bitcoin’s next era.
At press time, BTC traded at $104,888.
