Such low levels of unrealized loss suggest that almost all BTC held across the network is either in profit or breakeven, with only a small fraction of the supply underwater.
So far in 2025, NUL has remained above the current 0.0034 level for 102 of the year’s 127 days. This means that for more than 80% of the year, the average Bitcoin holder was sitting on deeper paper losses than they are now.
This compression in unrealized losses has taken place gradually as Bitcoin climbed from $94,360 on Jan. 1 to a YTD high of $106,160 on Jan. 21 and then dropped to a YTD low of $76,270 on Apr. 8.
On Feb. 20, the last time NUL was lower, Bitcoin’s daily high stood at $98,770, meaning that the latest price action is unfolding in an environment that closely resembles the tail end of the February rally.
The return to such low unrealized loss levels is structurally meaningful. During periods when NUL is elevated, drawdowns often follow as investors seek to exit breakeven or cut losses.
With NUL low, those mechanisms are no longer in play. Instead, selling pressure must come from profit-taking or external catalysts, rather than mechanical stop-outs or capitulation. This shifts the short-term risk-reward equation in Bitcoin’s favor, especially as it approaches $100,000.
But it also suggests that sharp rallies may require new inflows or shifts in sentiment, given the absence of a relief-driven bid from underwater holders.
