The study, called “Exploring the Game Theory of Hyperbitcoinization,” models five demand channels for Bitcoin.
Nation-states top the list with a $161.7 billion allocation built on a 5% swap of existing gold reserves into Bitcoin, equal to 1.62 million BTC, or 7.7% of the 21 million-coin cap.
Wealth-management platforms that oversee roughly $60 trillion could direct $120 billion into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds if clients opt for a 0.2% position.
Meanwhile, 13 US state reserve bills translate to a modeled $19.6 billion purchase, while sovereign-wealth funds account for a $7.8 billion base case. The combined flows total $427 billion, about 4.27 million BTC, or 20% of the supply.
The report argued that major wirehouses and private banks will soon open ETF access, transforming dormant interest into orders.
Once holdings accumulate, the report anticipates a pivot toward BTC-denominated yield. It values the nascent Bitcoin finance market at $100 billion if only 5% of a $2 trillion Bitcoin capitalization seeks on-chain lending, basis trades, or bridge-operator fees.
Bitwise and UTXO conclude that the interplay among sovereigns, corporations, and wealth platforms could push adoption beyond speculative trade into portfolio mechanics and public finance policy.
The report frames this progression as a step toward “hyperbitcoinization,” which will be driven by balance-sheet management rather than market sentiment and result in institutions accumulating roughly 20% of the Bitcoin supply by 2026.
