Bitcoin has remained above the critical $100,000 level since early June, suggesting that the market may be establishing a new price equilibrium. Despite holding this psychological threshold, the bullish momentum has stalled as BTC struggles to break above its all-time high near $112,000. This consolidation phase is marked by indecision, with traders weighing macroeconomic uncertainty, global conflict, and the fading post-halving hype.
Data from CryptoQuant provides deeper context into market dynamics, particularly in the derivatives sector. According to the firm, previous deep drawdowns in open interest (OI) — between 20% and 25% — typically accompanied local price corrections of 7% to 21% throughout 2024 and 2025. These sharp drops in OI often signal broad market repositioning or liquidation events that trigger downside volatility.
Bitcoin is currently trading 6% below its all-time high of $112,000, showing impressive resilience amid global uncertainty but lacking the momentum needed to enter full price discovery. The market has held relatively stable above the $100,000 level, yet the inability to push higher reflects hesitation from both institutional and retail investors. Macro headwinds — including rising US Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates, and escalating tensions in the Middle East — continue to influence risk sentiment and stall bullish continuation.
With BTC stuck between major resistance at $112K and key support near $103K, traders are watching derivatives activity closely. For now, the market remains balanced — but not immune to a sharp move if pressure builds.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,910, following a modest bounce within a tight consolidation range. This 3-day chart shows BTC caught between the $109,300 resistance zone and the $103,600 support level, which has now been tested multiple times since early June. Despite a slight uptick in volume, price action remains largely indecisive, reflecting market caution.
The chart also highlights the significance of the 50-day (blue), 100-day (green), and 200-day (red) simple moving averages. All three trend indicators are sloping upward, with price consistently holding above them — a bullish structural signal. Notably, the 50-day SMA is currently acting as dynamic support near the $100K–$102K range.
As long as BTC remains within this range, traders will look for a breakout above $109,300 to signal renewed bullish momentum and a potential push into price discovery. On the downside, a breakdown below $103,600 could open the door for a retest of the $95K–$98K region, where the 100-day SMA currently aligns.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
