Bitcoin has experienced sharp volatility in recent days, driven by escalating and de-escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, BTC broke below the key $100,000 psychological level following reports of US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, sparking panic among investors. However, sentiment swiftly shifted when news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran broke, triggering a strong rally. Bitcoin surged back above $105,000, highlighting the market’s hypersensitivity to global conflict headlines.
Supporting this recovery is data from the UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model by CryptoQuant, which offers insight into investor behavior. At the $112K peak earlier this month, the model recorded a spike to 34,000 points, signaling a wave of profit-taking as many holders sold into strength. Since then, the metric has plunged to just 216 points, suggesting that profitable selling has dried up, and a growing portion of transactions are now being realized at a loss.
Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment, having surged more than 7% in under 25 hours to reclaim higher price levels above $105,000. While the bounce has renewed bullish hopes, Bitcoin remains firmly within the consolidation range that has defined price action since May. Despite the aggressive move, short-term direction remains unclear as global tensions—especially in the Middle East—and tightening macroeconomic conditions continue to inject volatility into the market.
This steep decline signals that sellers have largely exited the market, creating space for new buyers to accumulate at lower levels. The shift in behavior suggests that while downside risks still exist, a sharp price crash is less likely in the near term. With selling pressure cooling and long-term conviction returning, Bitcoin appears to be entering a more constructive phase.
The daily Bitcoin chart reveals a sharp bounce from the $98,200 low back toward the $105,000 region, reclaiming a critical support zone near $103,600. This level had previously acted as both support and resistance since March and is now a key battleground for bulls. Price briefly dropped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) but has quickly recovered above it, signaling renewed short-term strength.
The bounce also comes after Bitcoin tested the 100-day SMA (near $96,000), a historically reliable area of buyer interest during corrective phases. However, despite the bullish reaction, BTC has yet to reclaim the $109,300 resistance level that capped multiple rallies since early June.
The spike in volume on the most recent green candle suggests demand is returning at lower levels, validating on-chain data that indicated sellers are stepping aside. Still, Bitcoin remains in a broad consolidation pattern, and a failure to break above $109,300 would keep the current rangebound structure intact.
To signal a true trend reversal and renewed momentum toward all-time highs, BTC must close decisively above $109,300. Until then, traders should expect continued choppiness as macro uncertainty and geopolitical events weigh on short-term sentiment.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
