Bitcoin is once again testing a critical resistance level after surging over 9% since Sunday, fueled by a shift in market sentiment and easing geopolitical tensions. The price now hovers just below the $110,000 mark—a psychological barrier that, if breached, could open the door to a new phase of price discovery. Bulls appear firmly in control of the short-term trend, but confirmation is still needed through a clean breakout above this key threshold.
According to fresh data from CryptoQuant, long-term holders (LTH) continue to play a pivotal role in this cycle. Throughout each of the three major rallies since November 2022, a pattern has emerged: LTH accumulation has preceded every major move higher. Now, at $100K, LTH accumulation is again rising steadily, suggesting this current consolidation could be laying the groundwork for yet another major rally.
Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads, holding key structural support yet struggling to define its next move. After rebounding above $105,000, the price remains just 5% away from its all-time high, but market participants are increasingly divided. Some analysts expect a strong breakout above the $110K resistance zone, potentially launching BTC into a new phase of price discovery. Others warn of a possible retracement below $100K, citing waning momentum and uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
Now, Bitcoin is once again showing a growing LTH/STH ratio near the $100K level. Adler believes this phase of accumulation may last another 4–8 weeks before a potential breakout. If the past is any indication, a conservative price projection using a 1.6x multiplier puts the next rally target at approximately $160,000.
The chart shows Bitcoin trading at $107,355, pushing firmly into the resistance range between $103,600 and $109,300. After recovering from a brief drop below $100K earlier this month, BTC has climbed steadily and is now less than 2% from the cycle’s key resistance at $109,300. This zone has rejected price several times since March, making a breakout here crucial for confirming entry into price discovery.
Volume has picked up slightly during the latest move, indicating buyer interest. However, the lack of a volume spike still suggests caution among market participants. The 50-day and 100-day SMAs remain upward-sloping and well below current price levels, confirming bullish structure and providing strong dynamic support at $94,898 and $88,470, respectively. The 200-day SMA trails at $72,375, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend.
If bulls manage to break and hold above $109,300, it could trigger a sharp move upward, fueled by short liquidations and renewed bullish momentum. However, another rejection could signal continued consolidation between the key support at $103,600 and resistance above. This price action reflects the broader indecision in the market, as traders await a clear directional signal amid macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
