One major factor keeping Bitcoin in a tight range is the scale of realized profits.
According to the report:
“Currently, the market appears to be in a cool-down phase after the third significant wave of profit-taking, indicating that while large gains have been secured, momentum is now easing as realized profitability tapers off.”
Edwards also pointed out that recent purchases by 6-month+ holders, possibly institutional investors like Bitcoin Treasury companies, have absorbed a significant portion of the sell-offs, suggesting a market flywheel effect.
He wrote:
“This dynamic is now starting to appear in the onchain data, and we can see that 6 month+ BTC holders have skyrocketed over that 2 month period. The amount of BTC acquired in the last 2 months by this cohort has completely consumed all of the BTC unloaded by LTHs over the last 1.5 years.”
Aside from the significant selling activities, Glassnode also pointed out that another reason for Bitcoin’s price performance is due to its weakening on-chain volume.
According to the company, BTC’s on-chain volume has dropped roughly 32% over recent weeks, from a $76 billion high to around $52 billion. Unlike previous rallies, the move to $111,000 didn’t bring a spike in trading activity. Spot volume sits at just $7.7 billion—well below previous cycle peaks.
It noted:
“This divergence further underscores the lack of speculative intensity, highlighting the market’s hesitancy and reinforcing the consolidation narrative.”
Moreover, the futures markets have also shown signs of fatigue.
While leveraged traders remained active during the recent $111,000 move, the appetite for risk appears to be fading.
In addition, the annualized funding rates and 3-month rolling basis have decreased since the Q1 2025 high. This indicates a shift toward defensive strategies like cash-and-carry arbitrage or short positions, rather than aggressive long bets.
Considering this, Bitcoin may stay range-bound because of the reduced speculative pressure and weaker trading signals until a fresh catalyst emerges.
