Bitcoin experienced a wave of volatility following the news that Galaxy Digital executed one of the largest notional Bitcoin sales in history—an 80,000 BTC transaction on behalf of a long-term client. The announcement, made in a press release on July 25, confirmed that the sale was successfully completed and immediately sent shockwaves through the market.
The scale of the transaction drew widespread attention, sparking intense speculation across the crypto space. While Galaxy Digital emphasized the professional execution and strategic nature of the sale, the sheer volume involved created uncertainty around short-term price direction. Traders reacted quickly, causing sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price as market participants weighed the implications.
Despite the scale of the distribution, Bitcoin’s price has shown remarkable stability. This suggests that the market is absorbing the newly circulated supply without significant downside pressure, a sign of underlying strength and demand. Still, Adler cautions that the NRPL remains elevated, meaning the distribution phase may not be over yet. As long as realized profits stay above baseline levels, further selling pressure could persist in the background.
Meanwhile, futures market data reveals that bears are attempting to regain control. With open interest rising and short positioning increasing slightly, some traders are aiming to push BTC toward the $110,000 level—a psychological and technical support zone. While bulls maintain structural dominance for now, these attempts may create short-term volatility.
If Bitcoin continues to absorb supply without major breakdowns, it could reinforce the bull case. However, if NRPL stays high and futures-driven pressure intensifies, the market may face a deeper pullback before the next leg up. For now, Bitcoin remains at a crossroads, balancing strong demand with persistent distribution.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined range, with price currently sitting at $118,182.62 on the 4-hour chart. The consolidation zone is clearly marked by resistance at $122,077 and support at $115,724. After multiple failed attempts to break above $122K, BTC has settled into sideways movement, reflecting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
The 50, 100, and 200 SMAs—now tightly aligned between $114,000 and $118,000—suggest that momentum is neutral, with short-term trend direction unclear. Price is currently hovering just below the 50 and 100 SMAs, indicating slight bearish pressure, but not enough to trigger a major breakdown. Volume has remained relatively low throughout this phase, reinforcing the consolidation structure.
Bulls continue to defend the $115.7K support level, but the lack of follow-through on breakouts above $120K is starting to erode short-term confidence. Bears may attempt to push the price lower, especially with futures positioning indicating a slight advantage on the downside.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
