The moving average of the hash rate (Hashrate MA), which smooths out daily noise, indicates a gradual upward trend beginning in early April. This trajectory coincides with a substantial difficulty hike of 7.96% that occurred at block 905184, suggesting increased mining participation and hardware optimization. However, this growth was preceded by a notable 7.48% downward adjustment at block 903168, reflecting reduced operational capacity and temporarily unplugged machines.
Prior to April, difficulty remained relatively stable while Bitcoin performed near the 800 EH/s hash rate threshold. However, from mid-April onward, both raw and moving-average hash rates entered a higher band, oscillating between 850 and 950 EH/s. The associated difficulty changes responded in tandem, with a series of positive and negative adjustments as the network attempted to maintain Bitcoin’s targeted 10-minute block interval.
For example, while the difficulty saw a minor -0.45% correction at block 901152, this was shortly followed by a 4.38% increase at block 899136 and a 2.13% rise at block 897120, each reflecting short-term recalibrations to balance throughput.
The graph’s orange moving average line shows a brief plateau in May, despite some sharp day-to-day hashrate spikes, likely driven by intermittent hardware uptime among large-scale operators. The current 1-week average stands at 891.7 EH/s, placing it near the mid-range of the observed 2025 band.
As Bitcoin’s difficulty responds to the rolling 2,016-block average of block times, the frequent hash rate spikes and retracements observed in recent months are prompting more aggressive corrective cycles.
The upcoming projected difficulty drop of 4.97% would mark a significant downward adjustment, indicating a reversion following a period of sustained computational strain. If realized, the upcoming -4.97% drop would mark one of the steepest difficulty declines of 2025, only beaten by the -7.48% adjustment at block 903168 five weeks ago.
While hashrate oscillates with increasing amplitude, the current technical trend maintains Bitcoin’s operational tempo within protocol norms.
