A thread posted late on 4 August 2025 by Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde has ignited debate about a rarely discussed harbinger of Bitcoin price cycles. In a thread on X, the quantitative researcher argued that an “overlooked asset class”—one he says almost no-one monitors in a crypto context—consistently pivots months before Bitcoin does, offering what he calls “a sneak peek at major turning points.” Villaverde’s proprietary back-testing suggests the lag is approximately six months, enough lead time, he claims, to anticipate the apex of the current bull market in late November.
Villaverde’s thesis rests on a data series stretching back to the advent of modern crypto markets. He points to the trough of December 2018, which, in his reconstruction, was foreshadowed by a significant low in the mystery market some weeks earlier. “After analysing years of data, Juan spotted a consistent pattern,” Weiss Crypto stated, quoting the analyst to the effect that “major lows [there] tend to precede major lows in Bitcoin.”
The same lead-lag cadence, Villaverde notes, flashed red in November 2021 when Bitcoin printed its all-time high even as the benchmark asset he tracks refused to break higher—an omen that presaged the 2022 bear market.
The model is not without blemishes. Weiss Crypto acknowledged “one exception in recent years—during the Russia–Ukraine invasion—where the Bitcoin relationship temporarily inverted due to macro chaos.” Yet Villaverde maintains the anomaly reinforces rather than weakens his conviction: exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations, but once the shock dissipates the historic rhythm reasserts itself.
At press time, BTC traded at $114,522.
