Bitcoin is trading with renewed volatility after successfully pushing back into the previous price range above the $115,000 level. This move signals resilience from the bulls, who are showing strength following several days of panic selling and heightened fears of a deeper correction. Market sentiment, while still cautious, is improving as BTC buyers reclaim ground.
According to CryptoQuant data, the % BTC price change since the last difficulty bottom indicator currently sits at +7.4%, placing it in the green zone. This metric is a valuable tool for assessing miner health and market stability. Historically, real miner capitulation phases occur when this reading drops into sustained negative territory between –10% and –30%, typically after a series of difficulty decreases. Such conditions force weaker miners to sell holdings under pressure, often contributing to market downturns.
The current +7.4% reading on the “% BTC price change since last difficulty bottom” indicator points to moderate momentum. While this is a constructive signal, Adler noted that it is far from the euphoric conditions seen in past market peaks, when readings surged between +50% and +80%.
Looking ahead, Adler outlined several key factors to monitor:
Next difficulty adjustment during falling prices: This would be a warning sign, indicating potential stress for weaker miners.
Hashprice/revenue per TH/s: Tracking miner profitability can confirm or refute whether the sector is under pressure.
Miner reserves: An increase in selling during weak price action would be an early signal of mounting stress.
The bottom line, according to Adler, is that the miner factor is not currently dragging the market down, but it is also not a strong bullish driver. Instead, it serves as a steady, supportive backdrop — as long as Bitcoin does not break sharply above the last difficulty bottom level with double-digit percentage gains or, conversely, drop below it. In this environment, BTC’s price action will depend more on demand-side catalysts and macroeconomic developments than miner-driven pressures.
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows the price attempting to sustain gains after reclaiming the $115,724 support zone. Following a strong bounce from recent lows, BTC pushed above the 50-day (blue), 100-day (green), and 200-day (red) moving averages, signaling a short-term shift in momentum.
Currently, BTC is consolidating around $116,585, with immediate resistance at $116,600–$116,700, aligned with the 100-day SMA. A breakout above this area could open the path toward the $118,000–$118,500 region, with the next major resistance at $122,077, the previous range high.
On the downside, $115,724 remains a crucial support level. A failure to hold this could trigger a pullback toward $114,000, with stronger support near the $112,500 zone. Volume has been relatively modest on this rebound, suggesting that bulls need stronger participation to maintain upside momentum.
The recent move above multiple SMAs is a positive short-term sign, but BTC is still trading within the broader range established in July. Until the price decisively breaks above $118K, the market remains in a consolidation phase, vulnerable to reversals if buying pressure fades. Maintaining support above $115.7K will be key for bulls aiming to test higher resistance levels in the coming sessions.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
