The release at 1:30 P.M. Eastern reflected a mixed profile. Headline CPI decelerated on the month from 0.3% in June to 0.2% in July, while the annual rate held at 2.7%.
Core CPI firmed on a 12-month basis to 3.1% from 2.9% and printed 0.3% on the month. These readings place headline inflation steady year over year with a slower monthly pace, and core inflation is still above the Fed’s target zone on both measures.
Consensus expectations skewed toward a 0.2% monthly gain for the headline index and 2.8% for the annual rate, alongside 0.3% for core month over month and 3.0% for core year over year, per Trading Economics. The actual outcomes, therefore, matched headline MoM and core MoM, came in below consensus for headline YoY, and came in above consensus for core YoY.
Crypto markets moved higher into and after the print as macro desks parsed the combination of softer headline momentum and a firmer core trend. The move lifted Bitcoin back toward the upper end of its recent range and extended Ethereum’s outperformance on the day.
Price action followed the familiar pattern around high-impact data, where liquidity concentrates near the release window and order books thin into the number before refilling once the figures land.
For the macro context, the data continue to define a narrow path for policy. A slower monthly headline reduces near-term pressure from energy and goods categories, while core’s 3.1% annual rate keeps attention on the services basket and shelter persistence.
Markets have tended to key off the balance between these two readings, with headline prints shaping broad risk appetite and core prints informing the policy glide path referenced in recent Fed communications.
Derivatives positioning in major pairs often amplifies the first move after CPI as basis and funding adjust to the new macro input. Today’s reaction aligned with that pattern, with BTC and ETH capturing the bulk of immediate flows while the long tail lagged.
Per BLS, the July report adds another data point to a mid-year sequence that markets will evaluate alongside upcoming labor and spending figures. For crypto, the direct takeaway from this print was straightforward: Bitcoin regained some momentum near $120,000, and Ethereum continued its tear to $4,400 after the data.
