XRP’s legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has removed a major regulatory hurdle, sparking optimism for institutional adoption and even a potential spot XRP ETF.
Daily trading volumes soared 208% to $12.4 billion after the settlement, with analysts estimating a 95% chance of ETF approval by October 2025.
However, price action suggests the euphoria may be cooling. In the 24 hours ending August 12, XRP slipped 4% from $3.19 to $3.13, despite hitting an intraday peak of $3.32.
Heavy selling during the 19:00 hour, totaling 73.87 million in volume, indicates large holders are locking in profits. While support has held at $3.12, resistance remains firm at $3.27–$3.32.
If the pattern repeats, XRP could slide toward its 50-period exponential moving average near $1.64, roughly 45% below current prices, before finding meaningful support. Interim demand may emerge around $1.90–$2.00, but the bearish fractal suggests momentum is fading.
Such a correction wouldn’t necessarily end the broader bull market but could shake out overleveraged traders, reset sentiment, and set the stage for a more sustainable uptrend later.
Bulls see a different path. XRP is testing the $3.55 resistance level, which capped the 2018 rally, and has broken out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle.
Clearing $3.55 with strong volume could open the door to $4.41 and potentially $5.68, especially if U.S. regulators approve an XRP ETF and whales shift from distribution to accumulation.
Still, macroeconomic uncertainty, whale selling patterns, and technical resistance remain hurdles that traders must watch closely. For now, XRP sits at a crossroads, either confirming the ominous fractal for a steep drop or breaking through resistance to extend the post-SEC rally.
Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview
