Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment, facing heavy resistance after setting a new all-time high around $124,000 yesterday. The milestone sparked excitement among bulls, but also renewed caution among analysts who warn that slowing momentum could signal a potential market cycle top. Some see the recent hesitation as a sign that buyers may be losing steam at these elevated levels.
Despite the growing bearish speculation, on-chain data from CryptoQuant offers a more optimistic perspective. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR-7d) has climbed to 1.04 with Bitcoin trading near $119,000. This reading means that, on average, short-term holders are selling their coins at a profit — yet the market is successfully absorbing this selling pressure without triggering a sharp correction.
Adler notes that the bullish scenario hinges on maintaining the SOPR-7d above 1.00–1.02, as values above unity mean that short-term holders are, on average, selling at a profit — and the market is absorbing that supply without triggering a larger sell-off. Ideally, brief pullbacks toward 1.00 should be met with strong buying interest, as quick rebounds from unity historically confirm robust demand.
However, the analyst cautions that if SOPR dips below 1.0 and stays there, it would signal weakening demand. This shift would increase the probability of a deeper market correction, as it implies that coins are being sold at a loss and buyers are not stepping in aggressively enough to absorb them.
The coming days will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Many analysts see BTC pushing decisively above $125,000 as the next major breakout level. Others, however, remain cautious, expecting the market to face a sharp retracement before resuming its upward trend.
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the cryptocurrency recently tested a new all-time high near $124,000 before facing swift rejection, pulling back to current levels around $118,777. This drop marks a failure to sustain momentum above the crucial $123,217 resistance zone, highlighted in yellow on the chart.
Despite the rejection, BTC remains well-supported above the 50-day moving average (blue), currently near $115,194. This level has consistently acted as a dynamic support during the 2025 uptrend. The 100-day MA (green) at $110,456 and the 200-day MA (red) at $100,144 remain far below, underscoring the strength of the broader bullish structure.
The consolidation below resistance reflects a market pausing to digest recent gains. For bulls, reclaiming $123,217 and closing above $124,000 would signal renewed momentum and could open the path toward $125,000 and beyond. A break below the 50-day MA could trigger a deeper pullback, with the 100-day MA as the next support.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
