Polymarket traders are pricing low probabilities on several notable phrases being spoken during President Donald Trump’s joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage today, even as volumes on the event’s prediction markets reach six figures.
The markets, which resolve on whether Trump uses specific words or phrases during the appearance, have drawn a combined volume of nearly $200,000 across multiple terms.
In contrast, some phrases are priced with sharply lower odds. “Crypto” or “Bitcoin” has attracted over $51,700 in volume yet holds just a 3% chance of being spoken. “Hell” three or more times is at 28%, “President Xi” sits at 27%, and several terms such as “Kyiv,” “Crimea,” “Biden,” and “Rare Earth” are clustered near the 40–50% range.
All markets resolve based on the official video or audio of the August 15 event, with any usage, including plural or possessive forms, counting toward settlement.
The Alaska summit marks the first in-person Trump–Putin meeting since 2019 and the first U.S.-hosted bilateral meeting with a Russian leader since 2007.
Polymarket, which allows users to trade on crypto event outcomes, has become a closely watched barometer for sentiment around political and geopolitical events. The platform previously hosted a market on whether the summit would take place at all, which saw nearly $3 million in total wagers before resolving “Yes” with the meeting’s confirmation. Market prices shift dynamically as traders buy and sell shares in “Yes” or “No” outcomes, reflecting the crowd’s real-time assessment of probabilities.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, which move in response to macro and geopolitical developments, may also be influenced by post-summit sentiment, though the dedicated “Crypto/Bitcoin” term market implies traders do not expect the asset class to feature in Trump’s public remarks.
Trump is scheduled to hold the joint news conference following his one-on-one meeting with Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson. The markets on Polymarket will close once the event concludes and recorded evidence confirms the results, with any absence of a public appearance by August 16 triggering a “No” resolution across all contracts.
