In fact, the probability of success every 10 minutes with one petahash of hashing power is closer to one in 650,000. This is why most miners join large mining pools, where rewards are split but payouts are more consistent. Solo mining is free from pool fees but comes with long stretches of no income and an exceptionally low chance of success.
This steady increase in the Bitcoin mining difficulty is due to the increase in large industrial farms with fleets of ASICs that push smaller operators to the sidelines. Hence, most miners choose to join pools and sacrifice a huge chunk of their potential payouts.
Solo mining, by contrast, comes with the slim possibility of capturing an entire block reward at fewer intervals. For instance, data from Mempool.space shows that the Solo CK miner only mined one block in the past week. Bitcoin blocks are mined at an interval of 10 minutes, but the miner has been able to successfully mine a block only 15 times in the past 12 months.
