He warned that the gap in cost basis makes a difference: it now takes roughly $110,000 of fresh capital to absorb each Bitcoin those holders choose to sell.
That math, he says, helps explain why price action has been slow even as overall market interest grows.
According to market observers, a single whale’s rotation from Bitcoin into Ether helped trigger a rapid sell-off that briefly knocked roughly $45 billion off Bitcoin’s market cap.
Why is BTC moving up so slowly this cycle?
BTC supply is concentrated around OG whales who peaked their holdings in 2011 (orange and dark orange).
Ether fell 3.8% in the same window, dropping from $4,925 to $4,680. Prices later recovered about half of those losses. Traders point to a chain of transfers that set the move off.
Blockchain.com records show that roughly 24,000 BTC — about $2.7 billion at the time — was sent to the decentralized perpetuals platform Hyperliquid across six transfers beginning Aug. 16.
Of that sum, 18,142 BTC has been sold and much of the proceeds were rotated into 416,590 ETH, an analyst known as MLM reported. A chunk of those ETH — 275,500 — was staked, worth about $1.3 billion.
It was also reported that the whale took on large leveraged positions, longing 135,260 ETH on Hyperliquid for a total exposure near 551,861 ETH, valued at more than $2.6 billion.
Reports have disclosed the whale still controls 152,874 BTC across several addresses, and those funds originally moved off an exchange about six years ago.
Market watchers say there are two forces at work: long-dormant holders sitting on massive unrealized gains, and active traders using large rotations to capture short-term moves.
If more of the 152,874 BTC moves to market, sellers could test demand again. On the other hand, the amount of ETH being staked points to at least some longer-term intent from big players.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
