The timing aligns with price behavior: after XRP vaulted above $1 in late December 2024 and accelerated toward roughly $3.40 by mid-January 2025, the 30-DMA of whale flow flipped decisively negative. Through February–March 2025 the negative leg deepened, with the smoothed net flow bottoming around approximately −60 million to −70 million XRP, a trough among the most pronounced on the multi-year chart.
That heavy distribution abated only briefly. From April through June 2025 the whale-flow 30-DMA turned positive for about three months, topping in the vicinity of +10 million to +20 million XRP. Importantly, that respite coincided with a cooler tape: price slid below $2.00 in April, then oscillated largely between ~$2.00 and a ~$2.60 ceiling into late June.
As soon as XRP reclaimed roughly $2.60 in mid-July, the negative histogram returned, and by August the smoothed net flow had retreated again toward approximately −40 million to −50 million XRP. Price meanwhile ran back above $2.60 in mid-July and spiked to a new high at $3.66 by end of the month. While XRP consolidates near $3, the whale-flow 30-DMA remains firmly negative at roughly −40 million XRP.
Second, the only sustained positive-flow window—April to June—overlapped a period when spot weakened below $2.00 and could not sustain moves beyond ~$2.60, suggesting whales were less inclined to distribute into a soft market and more inclined to add or at least reduce selling pressure during consolidation. The return to sizable negative flow once price pushed back through ~$2.60 in mid-July supports Maartunn’s characterization of renewed “distribution.”
At press time, XRP traded at $3.00.
