The demand impulse is directly measurable in coins. Using prices near recent trading levels, the Aug. 28 net dollar flow equates to around 1,600 BTC purchased by ETF vehicles in a single day, while new issuance remains near 450 BTC.
Positioning through the fourth quarter centers on two linked variables, flow persistence and price elasticity. A simple translation of daily dollars into coins shows the scale.
At $50 million in average daily net creations, ETFs would absorb roughly 13,600 BTC over 30 trading days, 27,100 BTC over 60, and 40,700 BTC over 90.
At $100 million, the draw becomes about 27,100 BTC, 54,200 BTC, and 81,300 BTC over the same intervals.
At $150 million, the totals reach about 40,700 BTC, 81,300 BTC, and 121,900 BTC. A second lens fixes demand in issuance multiples, where one, two, and three times daily issuance over 60 trading days align to about 27,000 BTC, 54,000 BTC, and 81,000 BTC, respectively.
None of these figures embed a flow-to-price coefficient; they map the potential coin withdrawal relative to the steady 450 BTC of new supply.
Lower policy rates can recalibrate relative demand for duration and hedge assets, a channel that has historically supported gold and, by extension, spot-backed bitcoin funds when allocations are flowing.
The limits of this setup are straightforward. Dollar flows are volatile by day, creation mechanics vary by issuer, and price changes modify the BTC per dollar translation. Still, the arithmetic of the past week isolates the core dynamic.
On Aug. 28, U.S. spot funds added $178.9 million, about 1,620 BTC at recent prices, against roughly 450 BTC of new issuance. Aug. 28 was the fourth consecutive inflow day for the group.
