The crypto market is under selling pressure as Bitcoin and major altcoins retrace to key demand levels, testing the conviction of bulls. After months of volatility and sharp rallies, traders now find themselves in a critical phase where consolidation and uncertainty dominate the narrative. While short-term sentiment leans cautious, on-chain insights shed light on the broader forces shaping this cycle.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Dan, the percentage of Bitcoin held for over a year — measured by realized market cap — provides a reliable framework for understanding long-term market phases. In earlier phases of past cycles (cycles 1 and 2), this metric showed rapid growth as accumulation drove sharp surges, culminating in cycle peaks.
In contrast, the current cycle (3) paints a different picture. The slope of the uptrend has begun to flatten, reflecting a slower pace of growth and signaling that the cycle is stretching longer than in previous years. This extended rhythm has raised questions about the structural changes behind today’s market.
Why is the crypto market cycle slowing? Analysts point to new dynamics — from the rise of spot ETFs to growing institutional participation — as potential drivers reshaping how this cycle unfolds.
Another factor is the way capital rotation affects momentum. In this cycle, whenever funds begin to flow heavily into altcoins, Bitcoin’s upward momentum tends to stall. This pattern has repeated multiple times, highlighting how diversification across assets has a dampening effect on the speed of Bitcoin’s rallies. Unlike the 2023–2024 period, when Bitcoin’s dominance was clear, today’s market is showing gradual but steady capital migration into altcoins.
Looking ahead, the macro backdrop also plays a key role. A rate cut expected in September, coupled with the potential approval of spot ETFs for altcoins in October, sets the stage for renewed optimism into fall and winter 2025. From a cycle perspective, current consolidation and any further corrections could present attractive entry opportunities for investors positioning for the next leg higher.
Bitcoin is trading near $110,000 after retreating sharply from its August peak around $123,200, with the daily chart showing a decisive shift in momentum. Price action has carved out a series of lower highs and lower lows, underlining the selling pressure that has weighed on the market since mid-August.
The chart highlights that BTC is now sitting just above the 100-day moving average at $111,700, with the 50-day moving average at $116,500 acting as a ceiling in recent sessions. As long as Bitcoin remains below this zone, recovery attempts are likely to be capped by resistance.
The $110,000 level is proving to be a critical area of support. A confirmed breakdown here could expose BTC to further losses toward $106,000–$108,000, while the 200-day moving average near $101,100 remains a last line of defense for the broader trend.
Reclaiming $115,000 would be the first meaningful step toward regaining control. Only then could Bitcoin make another attempt to challenge the $120,000–$123,000 range. For now, however, the market remains under pressure, and whether BTC can hold $110K will likely define the short-term outlook.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
