At publication time, Ostium referenced BTC around $108,017, with the August monthly candle settling “firmly red” after wicking through the record to roughly $124.5k and closing near prior resistance-turned-support around $108.2k.
On the monthly chart, Ostium sees no evidence of a 2021-style cyclical top. The note acknowledges some momentum divergence on RSI but stresses the absence of confirmation from the Awesome Oscillator: “AO has continued to point towards building momentum throughout the uptrend… I do not think this is even remotely similar to the 2021 top formation.”
The bear case strengthens only if September “closes below the 2025 open at $93.3k and therefore below local trendline support.” For the bullish path, the team wants September to find support “above the yearly open, but likely much higher around the July lows at $105k,” and “ideally” finish the month green “above the August open at $115k,” a configuration they say would “set us up for expansion beyond the highs in October.”
The daily timeframe remains the near-term hurdle. Ostium characterizes the pullback as “orderly,” with supports flipped to resistance on the way down and “the key level… obviously the $112k prior all-time high,” which served as support in early August and then “reclaimed resistance” on last week’s leg lower.
With a macro-heavy week ahead— ISM prints, JOLTS, the Fed’s Beige Book, jobless claims, ADP, ISM Services, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls—Ostium lays out conditional tactical setups. For longs, they prefer evidence of exhaustion into support: trendline resistance respected, “today’s low” taken out via a liquidation wick into the June-open/200-day cluster, and bullish divergence forming there before bidding for a move back to the weekly open and the $112k retest. For shorts, they prefer a sharp early-week squeeze into $112k “with trend exhaustion… having not taken out today’s low around $107k,” fading the pop back into weekly lows with risk reduced if it unfolds ahead of NFP.
Ostium also surveys positioning, pointing to snapshots across Velo and CoinGlass, three-month annualized basis, and the mix between Bitcoin and altcoin open interest, as well as one-week and one-month liquidation maps. While it refrains from headline claims on those dashboards, the note’s technical levels line up with the most concentrated liquidation density visible in the attached heatmaps, where stacked interest remains perched near the $112k pivot overhead and layered through the $105k–$101k demand shelf.
Across assets, the through-line of Ostium’s September map is clarity on thresholds. For Bitcoin, a weekly loss of $98,000 would be the first structural break of the cycle; a daily reclaim of $112,000 would strongly argue the local low is in; and a monthly hold above $105,000 with a close back over $115,000 would tee up fresh highs into October.
At press time, BTC traded at $110,610.
