On-chain data shows the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen three waves of major inflows from the veteran hands in this cycle so far.
The BTC spot ETFs launched in the US in January 2024. Since then, the funds have generally enjoyed growth, with a few periods involving a particularly sharp burst of inflows. The main attraction of the ETFs is that investors unfamiliar with the cryptocurrency world can invest into BTC in a form that’s convenient to them.
When a trader invests into such a vehicle, the fund buys an equivalent amount of the cryptocurrency on the client’s behalf. This reflects as an on-chain movement into the wallets associated with the ETF.
As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin spot ETF netflow has seen a few phases of extremely positive values. These naturally correspond to a high amount of demand for the ETFs.
The CDD is an on-chain indicator that measures the total number of coin days that are being “destroyed” in transactions across the BTC network. A coin day is a quantity that one BTC accumulates after staying dormant on the blockchain for one day. When a token dormant for some number days is moved, its coin days counter returns back to zero. The coin days that it had previously been carrying are said to be destroyed.
Generally, spikes in this metric correspond to activity from the diamond hands of the network. These HODLers tend to accumulate a massive amount of coin days with their patience, so when they finally break their silence, large-scale destruction of coin days takes places.
The three major Bitcoin ETF net inflow waves of Summer 2024, Fall 2024, and Summer 2025 all accompanied a distribution signal from the CDD, which suggests a rotation of coins happened from the veteran hands to new demand coming through these vehicles.
Since the latest such wave, the ETF netflow has calmed down to the neutral level, meaning demand has gone cold. “ETF inflows are key,” notes Maartunn. “Without strong new demand, selling pressure from new holders could increase.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,500, up 2% over the past week.
