As Ethereum (ETH) trades in the mid $4,000 range, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures open interest (OI) for the digital asset continues to hit new highs. Against that backdrop, analysts are now predicting a new all-time high (ATH) for ETH later this year.
According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor PelinayPA, Ethereum’s CME futures OI is steadily moving towards new highs. The analyst brought attention to past data about Ethereum futures OI to predict its next move.
Back in 2021-2022, Ethereum futures OI remained relatively low, largely dominated by 1-2 month contracts. At the time, although ETH gained bullish momentum, institutional exposure to the cryptocurrency on CME was still limited.
In sharp contrast, during the 2022 bear market, a drop in the ETH price led to a steep decline in its OI. While the period was still dominated by short-term contracts, long-term contracts stayed low, indicating weak institutional confidence in ETH.
However, a trend change was observed during the 2023-2024 recovery as Ethereum OI started to rise again – specifically among 3-6 month contracts. Simultaneously, institutional demand grew alongside ETH’s price.
The CryptoQuant analyst explained the implications of two potential combinations of OI and contract concentration. First, high OI with concentrated short-term contracts can lead to increased volatility, potentially leading to sharp swings and liquidation cascades.
On the contrary, rising long-term OI in 3-6 month contracts indicates growing institutional confidence and potential for higher ETH prices in the long-term. That said, crowded leveraged positions could trigger rapid corrections in the short term. PelinayPA added:
ETH is trading around $5K (near ATH) with record OI on CME clear evidence of institutional FOMO. While this supports the ongoing bull trend, liquidation risk is high. Short term volatility and corrections are likely, but the medium to long term outlook remains bullish.
Concluding, the analyst predicted that ETH could reach the $6,800 resistance level by the end of 2025. However, any deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook could stall ETH’s momentum temporarily.
