According to a recent report by Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s (BTC) illiquid supply could climb to 8.3 million BTC – roughly 42% of its total supply – by Q2 2032. As a result, the digital asset’s price may experience extraordinary price appreciation by then.
For their analysis, Fidelity used two distinct BTC cohorts to determine the illiquid supply. The first cohort consists of BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago. The second cohort includes public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC.
Bitcoin included in the first cohort was found to be highly illiquid, as its total portion of the BTC supply has only increased quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) since tracking became possible in 2016. The following chart shows the quarterly net change observed in this cohort.
When it comes to public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC, there has only been one QoQ decrease in total supply since 2020. As of June 30, this cohort held a total of 830,000 BTC.
Notably, public companies holding more than 1,000 BTC represent 97% of the total BTC held across all public companies. It is also worth noting that the vast majority of these holdings are concentrated among 30 companies.
When looking from a macro viewpoint, it can be observed that there has been an accelerating trend of holding BTC versus trading or transacting. Specifically, the rising adoption of BTC among public companies has led to a rise in illiquid supply since Q3 2024. The following chart illustrates the rise in BTC’s illiquid supply.
The report adds that at the end of Q2 2025, BTC’s circulating supply hovered around 19.8 million. Of this, close to 8.3 million BTC could become illiquid by Q2 2032. The following chart shows this projection.
The analysis predicts that Bitcoin’s maximum finite supply of 21 million is likely to become relatively more illiquid over time. Further, the trend of more companies buying BTC is likely to provide additional momentum.
The following chart further shows the change in Bitcoin’s liquid, illiquid, and still to be mined supply since Q2 2010. As can be seen, illiquid supply only started appearing in Q2 2020 and has already doubled since then.
