According to Derive.xyz, an on-chain derivatives platform, market participants are assigning a 22% probability that Ethereum will surpass $5,000 by Oct. 31. Bitcoin is viewed even more favorably, with traders pricing in a 34% chance of the asset climbing beyond $120,000 within the same timeframe.
Meanwhile, longer-term projections extend this bullish outlook into December.
Data from Derive suggest Ethereum has a 12% chance of crossing $7,000, while Bitcoin has a 26% probability of exceeding $135,000. These forecasts underscore how traders are positioning around potential catalysts despite short-term turbulence.
The optimism follows heightened market volatility that pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum to retest $110,000 and $4,000, respectively.
Considering BTC has spent the past month trading with below-average volatility, Derive founder Nick Forster told CryptoSlate that October could mark a turning point as digital asset treasuries prepare for more aggressive activity.
He noted:
“On Derive.xyz, traders are positioning for a major upside. For BTC, there’s a large cluster of calls around $145,000/$155,000/$170,000 for the October 31 expiry. For ETH, traders are betting on a 10%+ move with concentration at $5,000/$5,200 strikes.”
This has translated into significant price gains for the token, with ASTER rallying more than 2000% since launch to trade at an all-time high of $2.26, according to CryptoSlate’s data. Additionally, the total value of assets locked on the platform has surged to $1.79 billion, based on DefiLlama data.
Forster said:
“This wave of interest points to a new DeFi trend [reminiscent of] the rise of alternative Layer 1s in the 2020–2022 cycle.”
