Bitcoin volatility has stayed below 50% on 60-day measures since early 2023, extending through 2025.
That mix of higher market value and lower measured volatility is drawing closer comparisons to large, liquid risk assets, even if the absolute level of Bitcoin’s swings remains elevated.
Shorter-term gauges back the picture. BitBo’s volatility dashboard shows 30- and 60-day readings tracking at or near cycle lows, while historical bull-market peaks often topped 150% annualized. The change reflects deeper derivatives liquidity, more systematic trading, and the growth of volatility-selling strategies that dampen realized moves.
The September 2025 risk-off episode erased about $162 billion from the total crypto market value in days, yet Bitcoin’s percentage decline was smaller than that of many large altcoins, a pattern that has repeated across recent corrections.
Broader review of cross-market swings finds altcoin and DeFi tokens often run at more than triple Bitcoin’s volatility, which can feed back into BTC through liquidity shocks. Dispersion remains a defining feature of the asset class.
At the micro level, miner economics have acted as a toggle for volatility bursts. The Puell Multiple, a revenue-to-issuance ratio, has tended to align with miner distribution and accumulation phases.
These trajectories see the present regime as a transition that can precede forceful trend extensions when liquidity thickens and marginal buyers return. Such models are sensitive to inputs, so the track will depend on realized network activity, capital flows, and macro policy outcomes.
From here, two broad scenarios frame expectations.
If regulatory outcomes, institutional allocation, and steady liquidity persist, annualized prints under 50 percent could accompany new highs, a profile closer to mid-cap technology shares. If macro tightens again or legal uncertainty returns, realized volatility could reset toward prior cycle levels, including 80 percent or higher on sharp downtrends with forced deleveraging.
These ranges are consistent with case studies summarized by Fidelity and event-driven drawdowns.
For now, the data shows a maturing volatility profile. Realized measures sit near cycle lows while options returns have room to expand if catalysts arrive.
Market participants are watching miner profitability bands, ETF-driven flows and the policy calendar for the next break in the regime.
