Crypto analyst Trader Mayne is cautioning that Bitcoin may be setting up for a sharper drawdown before resuming its broader uptrend into year-end, arguing that a “$98,000 weekly liquidity level” sits uncollected below price and could be targeted early in October.
On Bitcoin’s structure, Mayne said the market has respected his recent roadmap: a push up, a retest, and now a decision point defined by higher-timeframe “breaker” levels and intraweek lows. “We had the daily flip bullish on Bitcoin, right? We closed above the breaker,” he said, noting that while the monthly chart is also constructive, “the weekly chart is technically bearish.”
With two higher timeframes leaning bullish against a soft weekly, he is looking to the four-hour chart to synchronize the next trade. “If the H4 is bullish, which it is, if I take a setup on some sort of liquidity run on the H4, that’s going to sync me back up with the daily at least.”
The immediate trigger, in his view, is a sweep of local lows to tighten risk rather than “aping” into a broad retest with a wide invalidation. “I would like to see one of these H4 little liquidity pools here get run and then…that becomes my setup and my stop is tight. I have clear targets over here,” he explained.
He highlighted “Monday’s low” as a relevant pivot that, if taken, could produce a mean-reversion long into a nearby daily bearish breaker and prior highs. “Maybe we even run this first, right? And then get the pullback. But either way, that’s what I’m looking for on Bitcoin here.”
He mapped the Ethereum structure as analogous, with the daily and 12-hour trends flipping constructive into a weekly order block, but with the same need for a precise entry via a low-timeframe liquidity grab. “ETH very similar, right? We had the daily flip bullish…we’ve got the breaker. It’s retesting this order block here,” he said. He described an H12/weekly combination where a “weekly SFP” and “structure break” are in motion, but stressed placement of the stop remains “tricky” unless a Monday-low sweep offers a cleaner trigger. “To me, ETH looks good here to fill in some of this…assuming we can get that setup,” he added.
Despite the caution, the macro-tactical stance remains buy-the-dip for Q4. Mayne repeatedly framed any early-October weakness as an opportunity rather than the start of a cyclical top. “Ultimately, I’m of the mindset that…this dip that may come, whether it’s from right here or after a push higher…is a dip we want to buy ’cause we’re in the endgame here,” he said. “It’s October, November, December. We’re in Q4… I believe we trade higher in Q4.”
At press time, BTC traded at $116,238.
