At the same time, positioning in crypto has been “cleaned up” after the quarter-end options expiry, with flows and on-chain metrics shifting from defensive to neutral-constructive.
Bitcoin is up approximately 1.5% in the past 24 hours, after briefly reaching $121,000 on futures before slipping back.
The macro impulse is straightforward. Private payrolls data showed an unusual decline, pushing Treasury yields lower and increasing the odds of a rate cut.
Meanwhile, the price competes with a dense supply band ranging from $114,000 to $118,000. Crucially, long-term holder distribution is easing and ETF inflows have resumed, which together imply stabilizing demand rather than a one-off spike.
Sentiment gauges like the Short-Term Holder Realized Value (RVT) and the Fear & Greed Index have cooled, consistent with a period of consolidation rather than capitulation.
In derivatives, the record expiry last week reset positioning. As open interest rebuilds in the fourth quarter, implied volatility has softened, skew is drifting toward neutral, and the term structure remains in contango with a firmer back end.
Overall, the report characterized the backdrop as neutral but constructive, waiting on a catalyst for the “next decisive move.” That backdrop aligns with macroeconomic tailwinds. Shutdown uncertainty continues to amplify a “rates trade,” which could also delay some economic releases and keep markets leaning dovish.
To maintain momentum, the crypto market requires a string of positive spot ETF flow prints and clear evidence that BTC can absorb the supply overhang between $114,000 and $118,000 without reigniting long-term holder distribution.
