However, timing still depends on Washington. During the federal shutdown, the SEC is operating with a skeleton crew and does not process registration statements, pausing the launches of ETFs until funding resumes.
Once staff return, effectiveness orders can be reassessed, meaning an October approval is still plausible.
XRP traded at $3.05 as of press time, which implies roughly $5.5 billion to $11 billion in year-one net creations.
In the battle to capture capital flows in this billion-dollar market, fee competition and distribution strategies are crucial. Lower expense ratios and broad brokerage access historically correlate with stronger early flows.
Launch day price action demands nuance. Bitcoin’s US spot ETFs triggered a “sell the news” stretch, as BTC tumbled 7.5% on the day following the products’ launch and risked losing the $40,000 threshold.
Ethereum’s spot ETF debut saw a similar movement, with a 4.25% decline the day after its launch. In a larger timeframe, Bitcoin quickly climbed to a local top of nearly $74,000 two months later, while Ethereum continued to nosedive until early October.
However, Bitcoin’s movement occurred in a bullish environment for the entire market, while the Ethereum ETF aftermath took place during a significant correction period. As a result, it is challenging to predict XRP’s price action, although a sell-the-news event is likely to happen, considering past events.
The exchange-traded products capture net creations that remove coins from the liquid float. When ETF demand cools, fragility rises. Conversely, when flows resume, drawdowns stabilize as supply tightens.
An XRP complex would likely replicate that cadence, with steady creations capturing inventory inside funds, shifting price discovery toward the pace of advisor and retail allocations, and reducing sensitivity to purely crypto-native liquidity cycles.
With the crypto ETF rule change in place and the paperwork live, the core question for XRP ETFs is not about a potential approval, but how the first wave of flows reshapes XRP’s market dynamics.
