According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before the month ends. He posted that likelihood on X and backed it with simulation work that uses a decade of price moves to map likely outcomes.
He also gave a 43% probability that the price will end the month below $136k. At the time he spoke, Bitcoin was trading at $121,200. That means a rise of about 11% would be needed to reach $140,000 from the current level.
According to data, October has been the second-best month on average since 2013, with typical gains of 20%. Reports have disclosed that November is the strongest month historically, averaging 46% gains since 2013.
Peterson described his forecast as driven by data rather than human emotion. He said each projection follows price changes that mirror Bitcoin’s past volatility and rhythm.
That approach aims to remove bias from short-term sentiment. Still, there are limits to what historical simulations can show.
Bitcoin has sometimes moved in ways that did not match past patterns. Market reactions, policy moves, and other forces can push prices off the script that history suggests.
Other analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the recent high. One analyst said the market was retesting prior highs and could move higher.
Another wrote that pressure was building for further gains. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by traders and funds.
Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate.
If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.
Reports have also carried comments from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can continue if governments and central banks keep printing money.
JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin will never stop going up.
His view links monetary policy to Bitcoin demand, and it is widely shared among supporters who see the asset as a hedge.
Featured image from Verdict, chart from TradingView
