According to analyst Willy Woo, the next crypto bear market could be driven by a classic “business cycle” slump rather than the usual crypto rhythms.
Woo warned that a true business cycle contraction — the kind seen around 2001 and 2008 — would be a different test for Bitcoin’s role in markets.
We had two 4y cycles superimposed
Now it’s only one; global M2 liquidity
Next bear IMO will be defined by another cycle people forget about → the business cycle
The dot-com downturn around 2001 saw US stocks fall roughly 50% over two years. And during the 2008 financial crisis the S&P 500 dropped about 56% as credit froze and GDP fell.
Those events happened before crypto existed, which is why Woo says crypto has not yet been stress-tested by a full-scale recession. Based on reports, that concern is about how liquidity would change and how quickly investors would sell riskier holdings.
The National Bureau of Economic Research tracks employment, personal income, industrial production and retail sales to spot recessions. Right now there is no across-the-board signal that a deep downturn is imminent, though some risks are elevated.
Trade tariffs are one factor that trimmed growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to weigh on GDP into the first half of 2026, analysts said. That kind of slower growth can sap liquidity and pressure markets.
The next crucial level to reclaim is $112,000, which could push Bitcoin higher.
Analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin has regained a foothold between $109,000 and $110,000, and he pointed to $112,000 as the next resistance that matters.
A clean move above that zone could invite more buyers. Conversely, a sharp liquidity squeeze from a broader recession could force Bitcoin to move more like tech stocks did in past downturns, not like gold.
Woo said the real test for Bitcoin will come when cash gets tight and investors must choose where to park money — not from the usual crypto triggers.
This period, he said, will expose who treated Bitcoin as a hedge and who treated it as a high-risk bet, and that outcome will shape institutional behavior and market rules going forward.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
