A new report from 10x Research shows that altcoins have lagged Bitcoin by that amount this cycle, marking one of the largest relative underperformances since 2017.
Traditionally, an altcoin season describes a period when smaller cryptocurrencies dramatically outperform Bitcoin, absorbing capital from the benchmark asset and delivering short-term outsized returns.
In past cycles, most notably 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin profits cascaded into Ethereum, then into mid-caps and meme tokens.
However, 10x Research noted that this cycle has inverted that pattern. Instead of rotation, liquidity has consolidated around Bitcoin.
According to the firm, data shows investors have re-allocated heavily toward BTC-denominated products and away from higher-risk tokens.
It noted:
“Over the past 30 days, our tactical altcoin model has favored Bitcoin over altcoins, reflecting a bottoming out in Bitcoin dominance. This shift follows a 75-day period in which the model preferred altcoins, a phase that coincided with Ethereum’s rally, but that trend has clearly ended.”
Moreover, 10X Research stated that Korean retail traders, long considered the engine of altcoin speculation, have also abandoned the trade.
For context, Messari data shows that Upbit, the largest crypto exchange in South Korea, has seen its trading volume decline significantly this year as traders pivot to US-listed crypto equities such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy.
That migration, 10x Research argues, drained both liquidity and conviction from the altcoin complex.
According to the report, Bitcoin’s market cap surpassed $2.3 trillion in early October, setting a new all-time high of around $126,000. Meanwhile, the total altcoin market cap (excluding stablecoins) has remained below its November 2021 peak of $1.6 trillion.
By mid-October, TOTAL2ES had only reached $1.48 trillion, about $120 billion short of its former high, even as Bitcoin exceeded its own by 84%. That gap is where 10x Research’s “$800 billion missed gain” figure originates.
10x Research wrote:
“Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet.”
According to Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, the problem runs deeper than temporary sentiment.
Chen added that the recent Oct. 11 market shock, which wiped around $20 billion from leveraged crypto position holders, “dealt a devastating blow to altcoins.”
She added:
“Retail investors trading altcoins face a terrible risk-reward ratio.”
Considering this, the Bitget CEO said a broad-based altcoin season “will not come in 2025 or 26.”
Unlike 2021’s retail-led mania, the current cycle has been shaped by institutional capital.
Notably, spot crypto ETFs have pulled record inflows of more than $40 billion in fresh capital this year, significantly outperforming other markets.
