Bitcoin is currently trading at a roughly 30% discount compared to its Nasdaq 100-implied fair value. While any high-conviction Bitcoiner already knows how cheap the asset is right now, this ratio highlights the knock-down BTC price in proportion. And it’s a divergence that has historically implied a deep undervaluation.
The last time we saw such a gap was in 2023, and it came before a significant rally. As ecoinometrics states:
“Unless you believe the bull market is already over, this gap is likely to narrow as Bitcoin catches up.”
“Bitcoin’s derivatives landscape is changing as Options OI begins to rival Futures. Markets are shifting toward defined-risk and volatility strategies, meaning options flows, rather than futures liquidations, are becoming a more influential force in shaping price action.”
Meanwhile, gold’s record‑breaking rally appears to be running out of steam. Bloomberg reported on October 22 that even “die‑hard gold bulls” are acknowledging the surge looks overstretched after bullion’s steepest weekly drop in over a decade.
Analysts told Reuters earlier this month that the extraordinary run above $4,000 per ounce has forced investors to rethink the durability of the move, with many now rotating toward high‑beta assets such as Bitcoin.
Younger investors’ preference for digital-native assets, combined with Bitcoin’s superior portability and finite supply, reinforces this structural trend. As gold pauses and liquidity searches for higher-beta stores of value, Bitcoin once again becomes the natural destination.
When the BTC price lags this far below its Nasdaq-implied fair value, history shows opportunity. A 30% discount hasn’t been seen in nearly two years. With open interest cleared, leverage reset, and institutional inflows stabilizing, the conditions resemble an accumulation phase rather than a blow-off top.
If the bull market narrative holds, Bitcoin could rapidly close the valuation gap in the months ahead, much like previous cycles following major deleveraging events. As markets reassess risk, the rotation out of gold and back into Bitcoin may serve as the catalyst that ignites the next leg up.
