Bitcoin’s price jumped roughly 700x during the same years. VanEck frames Bitcoin’s current size at about 2% of global money supply and argues that owning less than that share is, in effect, a bet against the asset class.
This is a simple, numeric way to link money printing and asset demand. It does not claim perfect prediction, but it does say the connection is meaningful.
Based on reports, futures markets have been a major driver of short-term price moves. VanEck cites that about 73% of Bitcoin’s price variance since October 2020 can be traced to shifts in futures open interest, with a t-statistic of 71 supporting the relationship.
Cash collateral backing those contracts sits near $145 billion. Open interest peaked at $52B on Oct. 6 and then fell to $39 billion by Oct. 10 after an eight-hour, 20% plunge in BTC.
Borrowed positions have climbed near the 95th percentile at times, though positions above 30% have not held for more than 75 days historically. That pattern shows how crowded bets can unwind fast, and it helps explain sudden swings.
Meanwhile, analysts said that gold’s recent $2.5 trillion market cap correction should be read as a cooling off rather than a loss of faith. They said investors could shift between protection and growth exposure depending on macro prints.
Based on reports, a soft US CPI print or easing trade tensions could redirect capital into Bitcoin, supporting scenarios where BTC moves to around $130,000–$132,000 in Q1 2026. Shorter-term targets in VanEck’s work include $129,200 and $141,000, while a clear rise above $125,000 would be taken as a sign of renewed buying strength.
Price action has been trading between $108,000 and $125,000. VanEck identifies a “Whale Buy Zone” near $108,600 and says holding above $108,000 keeps the odds tilted to the upside.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
