Mt. Gox just pushed its repayment deadline again from this Friday to Oct. 31, 2026, with court approval.
For Bitcoin, this delay extends the overhang narrative but also underscores that Mt. Gox distributions remain a slow bleed, not a single catalyst capable of shaking the broader market structure.
The trustee cited incomplete creditor procedures and processing issues as the reason for moving the completion dates for base, early lump sum and intermediate repayments from Oct. 31, 2025, to Oct. 31, 2026, shifting an expected supply overhang out by a full year, per the official notice. Bitcoin traded near $114,874 at press time.
The date change converts a calendar overhang into a process overhang. A sizable portion of creditors still need to complete exchange and custody steps, and prior tranches showed that payouts feed through exchange queues, custody releases and banking rails over extended schedules.
Public trackers continue to place the residual estate near 34,700 BTC, although the on chain totals fluctuate with internal movements.
At roughly $115,000 per coin, that montly Bitcoin intake equates to around 36,000 BTC, comparable to the entire remaining Mt. Gox stack. That is not a base case absorption path, however it frames the order of magnitude of regulated demand relative to the overhang.
More inventory hedging, basis trading and options activity means more capacity to intermediate episodic spot flows through delta hedging and cross venue arbitrage. That plumbing gives dealers and arb desks more room to warehouse Mt. Gox related supply without forcing disorderly prints in spot markets.
If ETF creations reach even a fraction of the early October pace, the market impact of staggered creditor selling can be converted into liquidity events that are intermediated across ETF, futures and spot.
Following the April 2024 halving, miners add about 450 BTC per day, or roughly 164,250 per year. That annual flow is more than four times the remaining Mt. Gox stack. While issuance does not determine price on its own, it provides a scale yardstick for how much new supply the market already absorbs under normal conditions.
The relevant risk calendar now stretches through 2026. Tax timing can bunch discretionary sales, especially around year end and filing deadlines.
US taxpayers close the calendar year on Dec. 31, with estimated tax cadence in mid January, while UK online self assessment returns are due Jan. 31, and Japan’s filing and payment deadline is March 15. These dates can motivate lot harvesting or selling to cover liabilities.
Quarter and year end rebalancing adds another layer, where ETF books, dealer hedges and CME expiry cycles can compress basis and amplify two way flows around month and quarter turns.
A simple scenario frame can help map scale to plausible outcomes, using 34,689 BTC as the starting overhang and $115,174 dollars as the spot anchor:
The takeaway is a sizing tool that compares the overhang to a week of robust ETF intake and a year of post halving issuance.
If realized sales are staggered and routed through exchanges, OTC desks and custody withdrawals across the processing windows already observed, market structure offers more avenues to intermediate the flow.
If sales cluster around tax dates, quarter turns or macro shocks, price impact can rise as basis compresses and liquidity thins.
The dollar notional at issue is much smaller, yet relative price sensitivity can be higher in BCH during payout windows, per the trustee’s repayment notices.
Monitoring will focus on the trustee’s official page, on chain labels for Mt. Gox entities to distinguish exchange bound transfers from internal shuffles, US spot ETF creations and redemptions, CME basis and open interest, and BOJ policy releases for any yen intervention or rate steps.
The calendar shift does not remove supply risk, it changes its cadence.
The reference points now are tax and rebalancing windows in early and late 2026, CME expiry clusters and any BOJ move that pressures the yen carry.
The trustee’s new deadline sets the next checkpoint at Oct. 31, 2026.
