Bitcoin fell over 4 percent to near $111,000 on Wednesday as U.S. equities set new highs ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, a divergence driven more by crypto’s positioning and flows than a broad macro risk-off.
Positioning is built back into the meeting window, making prices more sensitive to liquidations. Open interest across perpetuals and futures rebounded toward roughly $30 billion this week, and a modest wave of long liquidations overnight was enough to push the price lower in thin liquidity. Ethereum traded near $4,000, also down over 4 percent from 24-hour highs.
Depth has not returned to September levels, so that smaller imbalances can move price further than before the shock, and sensitivity rises when open interest climbs.
Mega-cap tech strength, led by Nvidia’s $5 trillion milestone, carried the S&P 500 to fresh levels while market breadth stayed a concern on major desks. That setup allows stocks to rise even as crypto trades its own microstructure.
Into the policy decision, the base case is a 25 basis point cut with limited pushback, then a post-event re-beta in crypto if funding normalizes and ETF net inflows re-accelerate.
A hawkish-leaning version would pair a cut with cautious guidance, a firmer dollar, and choppy crypto while open interest stays elevated and rallies fade.
A risk case involves a macro headline or unexpectedly firm tone that reignites long liquidations and pushes BTC toward recent $108,000 to $110,000 support, where leverage is rebuilt.
For near-term confirmation, watch whether BTC holds above $110,000 into the U.S. close, whether open interest stabilizes or declines after the event, whether U.S. spot ETFs print positive net flow in the next two to three sessions, and whether the 25 delta put skew turns more defensive.
The FOMC decision and press conference are scheduled today.
