The Bitcoin price has seen a significant pullback, retracing nearly 26% from its all-time highs, fueling speculation about the potential onset of a new bear market.
While the market landscape has changed significantly since then—with the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), new digital asset treasuries (DATs), and increased institutional support spurred by pro-crypto regulations—the current situation mirrors some of those past concerns.
As it stands, the Bitcoin price is trading just above $94,500. If the historical trend of a 67% retracement were to repeat in the next months, the price could potentially fall to around $31,185, which could be the potential bottom of the new bear market.
This perspective contributes to the notion that Bitcoin is likely confirmed in a bear market, which could result in a year-long decline marked by price fluctuations similar to those seen in previous bear cycles.
This event, marked by the 50-day moving average (MA) crossing below the 200-day moving average, historically led to rallies of 25% to 60% in the following three months.
The current bearish sentiment is intensified by negative trends in ETF sales and whale net volume, adding significant pressure to the Bitcoin price.
Historically, short-term traders tend to exit at breakeven or even at a slight loss, raising concerns about further declines. Doctor Profit concluded his analysis stating:
This combination of ETF selling, whale selling, and a large cluster of sellers sitting at breakeven levels is a dangerous setup and adds to the bearish case.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
