The 6-week LMACD is a lagging signal, meaning that by the time it flips bearish, Bitcoin is already well into a downturn. The chart confirms this with multiple examples: Bitcoin entered extended red phases lasting 812 days, 861 days, and 686 days following previous bearish crossovers.
Because the signal lags price action, Bitcoin typically bottoms long after the crossover occurs. Severino noted that bear-market lows always appear between 250 and 365 days after the bearish flip, not within a few weeks. Therefore, traders expecting a bottom only 40 days after the new signal are ignoring how consistently slow this indicator behaves.
The chart also highlights how severe each downturn becomes once the LMACD flips bearish. Previous cycles saw drawdowns of roughly 69% to 75% from the moment the cross happened, even though Bitcoin had already fallen significantly before the indicator flashed.
Please pay attention to this post if you want to understand why Bitcoin is highly unlikely to suddenly spring back into a bull run
One word: Momentum
Featured image from See The Wild, chart from TradingView
