The altcoin market has faced relentless volatility and extended periods of selling pressure, leaving many investors questioning when the long-anticipated altseason will finally arrive. Since late last year, analysts and traders have been closely watching for signs of a broad recovery across the altcoin space, but momentum has remained muted as capital rotated primarily into Bitcoin and select large-cap tokens.
However, new on-chain data from CryptoQuant offers a potential shift in sentiment. As of June 27, the average monthly exchange flow for altcoins has dropped to $1.6 billion, notably below the annual average of $2.5 billion. Historically, such reductions in exchange flows have coincided with phases of asset consolidation and accumulation, often preceding large upward moves.
Altcoins have had a tough ride since December, with the majority of assets down more than 70% from their local highs. The broader altcoin market — led by Ethereum — has struggled to find firm support or attract meaningful demand. Persistent macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and capital flight toward Bitcoin have kept altcoins in a vulnerable state for months. Despite short-lived rebounds, the sector has yet to stage a sustainable recovery.
Adler also points to historical data that reinforces this perspective. On the chart, green circles mark previous moments when monthly flows fell below the $1.6 billion baseline: early 2023, late 2023, and August–September 2024. In all cases, these low-flow periods preceded major rallies across the altcoin market.
If this pattern holds, the current environment could represent a critical accumulation window before the long-awaited altseason. As liquidity dries up on exchanges and sellers disappear, the stage may be set for a supply squeeze and strong upward momentum. While risks remain, the combination of depressed valuations and flow dynamics suggests that altcoins could soon awaken from their prolonged slumber, especially if Ethereum regains strength and leads the charge.
The TOTAL2 chart, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin, shows that the altcoin market is holding a critical support level after a strong rebound. As of June 27, TOTAL2 sits at $1.11 trillion, up 5.75% on the week. This level coincides with the 50-week moving average and the upper boundary of a longer-term support zone.
After months of underperformance, altcoins are showing signs of strength, bouncing off the 200-week moving average ($879B) and reclaiming both the 100-week ($965B) and 50-week ($1.11T) SMAs. The recent weekly candle shows a strong bullish engulfing pattern, hinting at renewed interest and capital rotation into altcoins. Volume is also picking up, which supports the case for a potential trend reversal.
Still, the altcoin market remains in a broader consolidation phase. A confirmed breakout above $1.2 trillion would mark a clear shift in momentum and likely trigger wider altcoin rallies. Until then, TOTAL2 needs to hold the $1T psychological level to maintain structure and investor confidence.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
