A closely watched technical analyst says the outlook for altcoins will remain precarious until Bitcoin breaks through a well-defined ceiling between $120,000 and $123,000, arguing that the weekly chart still commands caution while momentum lags.
Kevin’s read ties the altcoin path directly to Bitcoin’s ability to punch higher. In a follow-up post, he warned that sentiment had flipped at precisely the wrong places: “Most of the #Crypto timeline got max bullish at 4 year historical resistance and was max bearish at major support back in April and even June.”
Market structure and volatility may force the timeline. “#BTC getting ready to make a move soon after volatility has dropped off a cliff over the last week,” Kevin observed, underscoring that compressed ranges typically precede directional expansion.
In his view, that expansion must come with a break of both price resistance and the “downtrending resistance on the weekly RSI” to unlock the stronger bullish case. Without that confluence, he sees the set-up as a classic trap for altcoins, which historically underperform when Bitcoin is capped and dominance grinds higher within ranges.
For now, he remains explicitly cautious on altcoins while Bitcoin and the major breadth gauges sit beneath those levels, with the next decisive tests likely to be driven by the data cadence into September and a volatility breakout that finally chooses a side.
At press time, the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) stood at $1.48 trillion.
