Earlier this year, Donald Trump announced the formation of a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, where the government would build its own stash of the token.
Even a modest U.S. Bitcoin Reserve could trigger a supply shock, pushing $BTC to new highs in the next few years.
Bitcoin miners currently generate about 450 $BTC a day, which comes to 40,500 $BTC over a 90-day period.
Add to this ETF inflows, which average around 20,000 $BTC over a 90-day period. Even conservatively, if the Treasury pursues Option 1, total demand would reach 59,000 $BTC over 90 days to satisfy both reserve and ETF requirements.
That would significantly reduce the free float available for HODLing and trading, tightening the market.
Still, this is just one way of looking at the situation. Simply transferring forfeited Bitcoin into a single wallet is only part of the story.
The Treasury might also adopt a regular purchasing schedule – daily, weekly, or monthly – similar to how gold reserves are managed. Such ongoing buying would steadily soak up free float and increase supply pressure.
The result: tokens absorbed faster than they can be mined, creating scarcity and ultimately a ‘supply shock.’ As basic economics teaches, when demand exceeds supply, prices rise, especially when supply cannot adjust to meet demand.
And Bitcoin is unique: unlike commodities such as oil or copper, it has a fixed lifetime cap of 21M tokens. That means no new supply can emerge, making any demand shock far more enduring.
So far, we’ve only considered the U.S. Bitcoin Reserve. But other countries are also exploring their own $BTC reserves, including Poland, Brazil, El Salvador, and Bhutan.
A decisive U.S. move could trigger a ripple effect, spurring more governments to adopt reserve frameworks and worsening the supply squeeze.
The ultimate winner is Bitcoin itself. As the supply dwindles, scarcity will deepen, and the price will rise.
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And its bottom line? Avenging Dogecoin for his ruined childhood. Maxi, by the way, is Doge’s distant cousin – and his success and aura became the reason Maxi’s family didn’t pay him much attention.
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Despite crypto’s fast-growing legitimacy, the fact remains that tier-2 and tier-3 countries have yet to fully embrace the decentralized nature of crypto payments.
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Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice. The crypto market is highly volatile and risky, so kindly do your own research before investing.