That isolation raises the stakes as there will be no fresh jobs, payroll, or producer-price data to balance the picture.
The most recent CPI report showed US inflation at 2.9% in August, a slight uptick from 2.7% the previous month.
Notably, a softer CPI reading would likely reinforce that outlook and weaken the dollar, while a hotter-than-expected print could briefly revive rate-hike speculation.
According to the firm, a softer core reading below 0.3% month-over-month would support a dovish outlook, pressuring the dollar and favoring assets such as gold, equities, and Bitcoin.
However, a stickier inflation result, particularly if services and shelter rise above 0.4%, could strengthen the dollar and weigh on risk assets.
The firm also flagged that crypto markets often stage “pre-release rallies and post-print sell-the-news reactions” as volatility spikes and funding turns.
Meanwhile, Dean Chen, an analyst at digital-asset firm Bitunix, told CryptoSlate that the market reaction will hinge on how investors reprice risk after the release.
He stated that the market could sustain the current “high-for-longer but stable” narrative if the data meet expectations, which would allow Bitcoin to continue consolidating near its recent highs.
However, a stronger core figure might lift Treasury yields and the dollar, triggering a short-term correction from the upper range.
Moreover, Chen added that a cooler CPI could renew ETF inflows and push Bitcoin toward the $117,000-$120,000 zone, while a hotter report might drive capital back to safer assets, testing support near $100,000.
He added:
“Traders should watch real-time movements in US yields and the dollar following the release: a simultaneous rise in both would pressure Bitcoin, while a retreat could reignite risk appetite. In this environment, volatility remains elevated, and the sustainability of ETF inflows will determine whether Bitcoin can regain momentum post-data.”
