According to Arkham Intelligence, those 1.096 million BTC have not moved since they were mined in Bitcoin’s early days. At today’s price, they sit at about $129.23 billion.
Bitcoin’s price has hovered near $118,000 in recent sessions. If it stays there, Satoshi’s stake remains paper wealth—there’s no sign he plans to sell. Oiling those coins into the market could crash prices, so his fortune may stay stuck at the top of a ledger rather than in a bank.
Based on reports from an anonymous trader known as apsk32, Bitcoin could climb to $400,000. That call comes from a three‑plot model comparing Bitcoin’s market cap to gold’s history. Gold once peaked at $3,500 an ounce, and apsk32 argues Bitcoin follows a similar pattern when you measure both in units of gold.
The first plot in the model traces gold’s price per ounce over time. The second shows Bitcoin’s market cap plotted against those gold‑based values. A straight trend line emerges, which apsk32 ties to Metcalfe’s Law—a theory that network value grows roughly with the square of its users.
The third plot is a log chart, similar to Bitcoin’s well‑known Rainbow chart, but it layers on “years‑ahead” support bands from zero to five years ahead of the implied price line.
According to that framework, Bitcoin has never pierced the five‑years‑ahead band, even in past bubbles. Right now, the one‑year‑ahead line sits near $400,000.
If history holds, BTC could respect that band as a ceiling or floor, depending on market mood and macro factors like Federal Reserve policy or global demand.
Even if Bitcoin did hit $400,000, that jump represents more than a 200 % rise from today’s levels. Forecasts are guesses dressed up in charts. They help spot possible paths, but markets often surprise everyone.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
