The crypto fear and greed index continues to flash “greed,” and most analysts still argue that Bitcoin is setting up for another leg upward. However, an interesting technical outlook challenges this bullish consensus and issues a crash warning.
According to him, the most recent touch of this trendline might be the top of the current cycle. Furthermore, he noted that the Elliott Wave structure has now completed Wave 5 of a rising wedge and a larger Wave 5 impulse move. As such, a corrective phase is about to start.
As shown in the chart below, the next major move could be at least a 50% decline, with Bitcoin dropping to around $60,000 by 2026. This projection is based on previous price action, where Bitcoin embarked on 84% and 77% price crashes after touching the trendline in 2017 and 2021, respectively.
The technical setup also aligns with statistical data that shows August and September historically bring increased selling pressure. Xanrox noted that while traders can wait for further confirmation, such as a break below the 50-week moving average, he personally believes the top is already in. Large institutions and professional investors pay close attention to the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages.
