Bitcoin (BTC) has recently reached a new weekly high above the $112,000 mark, signaling a potential new uptrend for the leading cryptocurrency. This movement may represent the final phase of the current cycle for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
The analysis highlights the typical relationship between Bitcoin’s Halving events and subsequent price peaks. Since the last Halving in April 2024, 503 days have passed, with past data showing that price peaks usually occur 518 to 580 days following such events.
However, CryptoBirb cautions that historical trends indicate that after reaching a peak, Bitcoin typically experiences a significant decline, often dropping by 70% to 80% over a 370 to 410-day timeframe.
September, often recognized as a weaker month for Bitcoin, has shown an average decline of 6.17%. Although third quarter statistics can be mixed, with a median increase of 0.80%, the overall average tends to reflect a decline due to larger losses.
The typical seasonal pattern suggests that a poor September could be followed by stronger performance in October and November, with September 17 identified as a crucial date to watch by the analyst.
On the technical front, Key support levels are identified at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300.
Looking ahead, both short-term and long-term trading trailers are currently in a bearish mode. CryptoBirb asserts that if Bitcoin falls below the critical levels of $107,000 to $108,000, bearish sentiment could intensify, potentially leading to secondary corrections in the range of 20% to 30%.
Fortunately, cryptocurrency miners appear to be faring well, with the mining cost established at $95,400, suggesting a healthy market environment with minimal capitulation risk.
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $112,886, down nearly 11% from all-time high levels.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
