Bitcoin is currently consolidating in a tight range between two major historical price levels—the all-time high (ATH) of $112,000 and the previous cycle’s peak at $103,600, set back in December. Despite heightened global tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin has held firm above key demand zones, signaling strong bullish intent even in an uncertain macro environment.
Market participants are closely watching this consolidation phase, as it may serve as the base for Bitcoin’s next expansive move. Bulls appear confident, with price action showing resilience against multiple dips, and strong buyer interest emerging near the $104K mark.
Bitcoin continues to confuse both bulls and bears as it consolidates within a tight range, failing to produce a clear breakout or breakdown. While short-term traders remain on edge, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to be strengthening beneath the surface. Institutional adoption is on the rise, long-term supply is tightening, and the amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges continues to decline—a classic sign of increased investor confidence and long-term accumulation.
Meanwhile, global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty remain elevated. The Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran has shaken markets, while fears of rising inflation and US Treasury yields add additional pressure. Furthermore, geopolitical shifts in global trade dynamics are fueling a volatile environment. Yet, Bitcoin appears to thrive in this chaos, reinforcing its narrative as an emerging store of value and alternative to traditional financial systems.
In recent weeks, CDD Momentum has shown a sustained decline below the zero level, aligning with a notable slowdown in older coin transfers. After multiple local peaks earlier in the year, this cooling-off period suggests that experienced investors are now stepping back from the market, not by exiting, but by choosing to hold.
This behavior historically precedes significant upside momentum. If Bitcoin maintains its current support levels and long-term holders continue to stay sidelined, it could set the stage for a powerful breakout and the beginning of a new leg up in the cycle.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,127 after rejecting resistance near the $109,300 level, as shown in the 4-hour chart. The price attempted to reclaim that key resistance zone but failed to gain momentum, leading to a brief pullback. Despite the rejection, BTC is still holding above the 200-period moving average (red line) and the $106,000 mark, which now acts as short-term support.
Volume remains relatively stable, suggesting that the market is in a wait-and-see mode amid broader uncertainty. The 50 SMA (blue) and 100 SMA (green) have flattened, highlighting the consolidation pattern that has formed between $103,600 and $109,300. This range continues to dominate short-term price action, with bulls defending the lower boundary and bears rejecting higher levels.
A sustained move above $109,300 would open the door for a test of the all-time high at $112,000 and potentially begin a price discovery phase. Conversely, if BTC loses the $103,600 support zone, downside targets could shift toward $100,000.
Until a breakout occurs, this range remains key for short-term traders. Consolidation near key moving averages and support levels suggests that bulls still have a strong grip, but volatility remains a constant risk as macro conditions unfold.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
