A July 10 report indicated that the Accumulation Trend Score has shown steady investor buying since June, with the price remaining within a narrow band. The report came hours ahead of Bitcoin exploding into price discovery above $112,000.
As of press time, it was trading at $116,000 after hitting a new all-time high of $117,500.
Long-term holders continue to add to balances, with supply growth outpacing miner issuance. This reflects a preference to hold coins until a clear price move occurs.
Entities holding under 100 BTC have added 19,300 BTC per month, exceeding the 13,400 BTC per month issuance, thereby absorbing new supply into longer-term holdings.
Realized volatility across 1-week to 6-month windows is near the lowest levels recorded since December 2022. Only 6% of trading days since then have seen a tighter 30-day price range, while just 0.4% have shown a narrower 60-day range.
This multi-scale compression indicates that volatility has contracted, forming a coiled structure where modest demand shifts can drive large price movements.
At-the-money implied volatility in options markets has declined across all timeframes, with percentile ranks in the lowest decile since late 2022.
Options markets are not pricing for high volatility, a condition that has historically preceded directional price moves when liquidity is thin.
Glassnode’s Realized Supply Density metric indicated that 19% of the supply is positioned within a 10% band around the current price. Small price movements can significantly impact unrealized profitability for a large share of holders, thereby increasing the potential for reactive trading once the price breaks out.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US now hold a record $137 billion in assets under management (AUM), representing 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
While net inflows slowed to $144 million last week, steady demand has moved supply into regulated investment products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now holds 55% of total ETF AUM and dominates ETF options open interest, with its cost basis closely aligning with broader market positioning models.
The report concluded that Bitcoin’s all-time highs occur within an environment of low realized volatility, tight liquidity, and heavy on-chain accumulation, creating conditions where volatility builds quietly across markets while prices hold near record levels.
